Mumbai, January 28: The annual Union Budget is round the corner. The Union Budget is slated to be presented on Monday, February 1, 2021 while the Economic Survey will be tabled on Friday, January 29, 2021. All eyes will be on the forthcoming Union Budget as it is expected to focus more on putting the economy back on track. According to a report by India Ratings, the focus of the budget will be to get back things to normalcy and not too much on arresting fiscal deficit, which is seen at 6.2 percent in 2021-22, down from 7 percent this year.
The Union Budget 2020-21 had estimated fiscal deficit at Rs 7.96 lakh crore or 3.5 percent of GDP but India Ratings sees it printing in at Rs 13.44 lakh crore or 7 percent if the government cleared its payables and roll over some portion of expenditure to 2021-22.
India Ratings Chief Economist Devendra Pant said that the 2021-22 budget is likely to project a fiscal deficit of 6.2 percent but that will be achievable if nominal growth comes in around 14 percent and real growth prints in at 9.5-10 percent. The study pegged growth at 9.6 per cent for 2021-22 and (-)7.8 per cent for the current financial year 2020-21.
The report said that the fiscal impact of the economic packages worked out to be about Rs 3.5 lakh, or 1.8 percent of GDP. Even without this package, Ind-Ra had estimated that FY21 will witness a revenue shortfall of Rs 60,000 crore due to aggressive estimation of revenue receipts, it added. The government adopted a lose fiscal policy due to the coronavirus pandemic and announced a number of policy measures under Atmanirbhar Bharat packages to support the economy. The report adds that as per the grant-wise expenditure trend, the report estimates revenue expenditure in 2020-21 to be Rs 26.65 lakh crore as against a Budget Estimate of Rs 26.30 lakh crore.